Report
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•Energy demand drivers
- Affordable and reliable energy fuels economic development and modern living standards.
- Large energy disparity still exists between developed and developing countries.
- Growing energy consumption supports economic expansion, enabling longer, more productive lives for the growing global population.
Report
2 min read
•More than 4 billion people live below modern standards for life expectancy, education, and income
U.N. Human Development Index
2022 Index
Energy improves quality of life.
- Rising energy use fuels higher incomes that enable people to own homes, purchase labor-saving appliances, travel, and obtain needed medical services.
- The United Nations Human Development Index is a measure of average quality of life by country, based on life expectancy, education, and income.
- Consumption of 50 million British thermal units (MMBTU) per person is the threshold needed to materially move the human development indicators; however, today, more than 4 billion people live in countries below the “modern energy minimum.”
Population
OECD: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, a group of more affluent democracies with market-based economies that promotes economic growth.
GDP
Purchasing power per person
By 2050, population is expected to grow by nearly 2 billion people as GDP doubles.
- Developing countries’ income doubles to $25,000 but remains well below developed-country levels.
Energy per capita
Energy use per person grows in developing countries, driven by economic expansion.
- Developed countries continue to see efficiency gains, which enables continued economic growth with less energy.
Global energy demand to grow 15% by 2050
Global energy demand
Quadrillion Btu
Population and economic growth drive global energy demand to increase by 15%.
- >10% reduction in energy demand in developed countries from efficiency gains is offset by >25% increase in energy demand in developing countries.
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Cautionary statement
The Global Outlook includes Exxon Mobil Corporation’s internal estimates of both historical levels and projections of challenging topics such as energy demand, supply, and trends through 2050 based upon internal data and analyses as well as publicly available information from many external sources including the International Energy Agency. Separate from ExxonMobil’s analysis, we discuss a number of third-party scenarios such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Likely Below 2°C and the International Energy Agency scenarios. Third-party scenarios discussed in this report reflect the modeling assumptions and outputs of their respective authors, not ExxonMobil, and their use and inclusion herein is not an endorsement by ExxonMobil of their results, likelihood or probability. Work on the Outlook and report was conducted during 2023 and 2024. The report contains forward looking statements, including projections, targets, expectations, estimates and assumptions of future behaviors. Actual future conditions and results (including energy demand, energy supply, the growth of energy demand and supply, the impact of new technologies, the relative mix of energy across sources, economic sectors and geographic regions, imports and exports of energy, emissions and plans to reduce emissions) could differ materially due to changes in economic conditions, the ability to scale new technologies on a cost-effective basis, unexpected technological developments, the development of new supply sources, changes in law or government policy, political events, demographic changes and migration patterns, trade patterns, the development and enforcement of global, regional or national mandates, changes in consumer preferences, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading “Factors Affecting Future Results” in the Investors section of our website at www.exxonmobil.com. The Outlook was published in August 2024. ExxonMobil assumes no duty to update these statements or materials as of any future date, and neither future distribution of this material nor the continued availability of this material in archive form on our website should be deemed to constitute an update or re-affirmation of this material as of any future date. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.